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Premier League remain outside the top 2 in latest coefficient update

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Despite not being in European competition this season watching from the outside still holds massive significance and possible implications further down the line.

Without having a say in how the table turns, the Premier League’s future in Europe next season rests in the hands of the 8 teams who entered the UEFA Champions League, Europa League & Europa Conference League this season. Currently the Premier League holds 4 Champions League spots, 2 Europa League spots (1 reserved for FA Cup winners) and 1 Europa Conference League spot (reserved for Carabao Cup winners)

With the Champions League expanding next season that has opened up the opportunity of an extra club from the Premier League participating with the rest of the positions filtering down to a possible 8th place. But in order to gain that extra Champions League spot the league has to perform in the 23/24 competition.

The top two performing nations across Europe across the 23/24 competition will be rewarded the additional spot for the 24/25 competition. After the first round of Champions League round of sixteen ties and first legs of Europa League/Conference League, the state of play looks like this. Updated on February 16th on UEFA’s website.

Data: UEFA.com

The Premier League has not got off to the best of starts, both Manchester United and Newcastle have been knocked out of Europe entirely which means only 6 remain across the 3 competitions. With Aston Villa, Liverpool, Brighton and West Ham not participating until the round of 16, that means teams could have the chance to build an advantage before those four teams re-enter.

You might think that’s not big of a deal given you expect Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool to go far in Europe but this is where it gets complicated, the points is decided on the average so whatever points the league accumulates between now and May gets divided by 8. And with only 6 seeing the knockout stage that number is going to be dragged down because of 2 sides picking up 0 from this point.

You might be thinking how this impacts Chelsea. Given our poor start to the season it is unlikely Chelsea will even be in the shout for 4th come May let alone 5th but the knock on impact down the table could mean the club miss out on Europe entirely. For example, if the Premier League was awarded a 5th Champions League spot, 8th would almost certainly mean Conference League. Failure to win the 5th spot would mean you would have to finish 7th.

Hope is not all lost for Chelsea fans as there is still a possibility of entering Europe via the backdoor. Winning the Carabao Cup would mean qualification to the UEFA Europa Conference League and winning the Emirates FA Cup would mean entry into the UEFA Europa League. This is regardless of the Premier League getting/not getting an additional Champions League spot.

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