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Premier League’s extra European place in doubt following Dortmund’s victory

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Despite not being in European competition this season watching from the outside still holds massive significance and possible implications further down the line.

Without having a say in how the table turns, the Premier League’s future in Europe next season rests in the hands of the 8 teams who entered the UEFA Champions League, Europa League & Europa Conference League this season. Currently the Premier League holds 4 Champions League spots, 2 Europa League spots (1 reserved for FA Cup winners) and 1 Europa Conference League spot (reserved for Carabao Cup winners).

With the Champions League expanding next season that has opened up the opportunity of an extra club from the Premier League participating with the rest of the positions filtering down to a possible 8th place. But in order to gain that extra Champions League spot the league has to perform in the 23/24 competition.

The top two performing nations across Europe across the 23/24 competition will be rewarded the additional spot for the 24/25 competition. With Liverpool and West Ham in serious trouble, as well as Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa locked in close battles, England’s chances of gaining a 5th Champions League spot have never been more in doubt.

Calculated by ESPN, following Dortmund’s victory over Atletico Madrid Germany’s coefficient has started to open up a gap on England and overall doubts are starting to emerge on the Premier League having 8 teams in European competition next season.

How does it work?

The coefficient points are decided on the average so whatever points the league accumulates between now and May gets divided by 8. Manchester United and Newcastle’s group-stage exits have effectively caused overall doubt and the most likely outcome would an English club needing to win both Champions League quarter-finals and eventually winning the competition. Aston Villa would most likely need to repeat the same.

How does this impact Chelsea?

You might be thinking how this impacts Chelsea. Given our poor league campaign Chelsea are no longer in the shout for 4th come May let alone 5th but the knock on impact down the table could mean the club miss out on Europe entirely.

For example, if the Premier League were to be awarded a 5th Champions League spot, 8th would almost certainly mean Conference League with the Europa League being achieved with a 7th place finish. Failure to win the 5th spot would mean you would have to finish 6th & 7th. If a team outside the top 8 were to win the FA Cup then 8th would not qualify for Europe.

Hope is not all lost for Chelsea fans as there is still a possibility of entering Europe via the backdoor. Winning the Emirates FA Cup would mean entry into the UEFA Europa League, this is regardless of the Premier League getting/not getting an additional Champions League spot.

Pochettino’s Chelsea currently sit 1 point off 8th (2 games in hand) and 3 points off 6th & 7th but do have a game in hand. Chelsea still have to play West Ham, Brighton, Aston Villa & Tottenham who are all fighting for European places.

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